Conviction is an AI-focused venture firm founded in 2022 by Sarah Guo. As TechCrunch's bio of its founder puts it, the firm was founded "to invest in intelligent software, or 'Software 3.0'" — Guo's term for the wave of companies built around AI models rather than deterministic code. She made the bet before ChatGPT turned AI into the industry's defining theme: her debut fund closed in late 2022, and Forbes noted she was backing Harvey, Cognition and OpenEvidence long before they carried multi-billion-dollar valuations.
Thesis
Conviction invests in AI-native companies across the stack — applications, infrastructure and fundamental research — with a bias toward deep domain knowledge embedded in workflows. Guo's public investing doctrine centres on a few ideas: code was the first killer AI app; "execution is the moat" because foundation models are increasingly commoditised; and the "AI Leapfrog Effect" — the observation that conservative, low-tech industries adopt AI fastest, as shown by AI companies serving law firms, doctors and customer-support teams. The firm's name reflects her stance on defensibility: in her view, startups win on speed and execution, not on moats.
Fund size and stages
Guo raised the debut $101 million fund in under ten weeks in 2022, an unusually fast fundraise for a first-time manager in a difficult funding environment (PitchBook). Crunchbase reported in 2026 that Conviction was on its third fund cycle and had recruited Mike Vernal, a former partner at Meta and Sequoia. The sizes of the later funds have not been publicly disclosed.
Notable portfolio
Conviction's portfolio is a who's-who of applied AI. Harvey, the legal AI platform, raised $200 million at an $11 billion valuation in March 2026 in a round co-led by Sequoia and GIC, with Conviction Partners participating alongside Andreessen Horowitz and Kleiner Perkins. OpenEvidence, the AI platform for doctors, reached a $12 billion valuation in January 2026; Sierra, the customer-experience AI company, raised $950 million at a $15 billion valuation in May 2026 (figures via Crunchbase's 2026 Midas coverage). The firm's first investment, made in early 2023, was Seek AI — a $7.5 million pre-seed and seed round co-led with Battery Ventures, with Mustafa Suleyman and Bob Muglia among the angels. Guo is also on the Forbes Midas List.
Partners
Sarah Guo is founder and managing partner. Before Conviction she spent a decade at Greylock Partners, becoming its youngest — and only female — general partner at 28, where she backed companies including Cleo, Figma and Coda (per TechCrunch and 20VC). She holds four degrees from the University of Pennsylvania and is a Wisconsin native. She co-hosts the widely followed AI podcast No Priors with Elad Gil, a format that doubles as the firm's public research channel.
Programmes and perks
Conviction runs no public accelerator or credits programme. Its founder-facing platform is intellectual: the No Priors podcast and Guo's essays on AI-native company building, which have become required listening for founders navigating the AI stack.
Why it matters for founders
Conviction called the AI application wave before the crowd arrived, and its portfolio — Harvey, OpenEvidence, Sierra — is the strongest applied-AI roster of any new fund of its vintage. Guo's "execution is the moat" doctrine is a signal: she backs founders with deep workflow knowledge and relentless shipping speed over technical mystique. If you are building AI into a conservative industry's core workflow, she is one of the first calls to make.